Alien Evidence
  A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory

A Revival of the 61-Month Wave Theory

                            by Donald A. Johnson, Ph.D.
                                   P.O. Box 161
                            Kirkland, Washington 98033

       The Knowles family  CE-II  encounter with an ovoid-shaped UFO on the
       Nullarbor Plateau in Western Australia  January  20th  was  right on
       target in terms  of time and place, according to the  61-month  wave
       cycle first proposed  by  Dr. David Saunders back in 1971.  At least
       two other UFO  encounters of major  importance  occurred  that  same
       night in Australia and Tasmania.

       If the indications are correct and this is not an isolated  incident
       but the beginnings  of  a major UFO wave, we will have to reconsider
       the significance of  this  long-term  prediction  in  terms  of  our
       ability to predict and act upon the occurrence of  this  and  future
       UFO waves.

       Dr. David Saunders  first  noticed  the regularity in major American
       UFO waves (1947, 1952, 1957 and 1967)  in  the  early months of 1971
       while working with the UFOCAT computer catalog at the  University of

       He determined that  what  distinguished  these UFO waves from other,
       possibly publicity-generated UFO waves, was the shape of their

       These were waves of UFO reports  in  which  the  frequency  of daily
       reports began building  slowly,  built  to  a  crescendo,  and  then
       diminished rapidly.    These  negatively-skewed  UFO  waves occurred
       with a periodicity of five years, or more accurately 61-months, with
       an accuracy in peak prediction to within a day or so (1).

       Furthermore, another characteristic of these five-year waves was the
       progressively eastward movement of their loci of activity.

       The first wave crested in July 1947  and  occurred  predominantly in
       the Pacific and Mountain States.  The 1952 wave reached  its peak in
       late August 1952 with the majority of reports coming from Midwestern


       Each successive wave  appeared to move approximately 30 degrees east
       in longitude.

       The absence of a 1962 wave was accounted  for  by  a search of South
       American references which revealed a Brazilian and  Argentinian  UFO
       wave in September,  and  the  1967  wave--which began on the Eastern
       seaboard of the United States--actually  crested in November of that
       year in England.

       Saunders was able to make his first prediction that a major UFO wave
       would occur in the vicinity of 30 degrees East longitude and peak in
       December 1972 over a year prior to its occurrence.

       This prediction was borne out by the occurrence of  a  UFO  wave  in
       South Africa in   late  November.   However,  most  ufologists  lost
       interest in the theory when the predicted waves for 1977-78 and 1983
       failed to materialize (so far as we can tell).

       Both of these  waves should have occurred  in  countries  controlled
       predominantly by governments unfriendly to the West.

       Saunders continues to  have faith in the theory and  has  offered  a
       consistent, convincing response  to  critics:   that it is unfair to
       judge the merits of the theory on  what we may or may not hear about
       from the Soviet Union.

       According to calculations (see table below), the next great UFO wave
       should occur between now and the beginning of March, centered at 120
       degrees East longitude.  The Nullarbor Plain is at approximately 127
       degrees East longitude.

       The wave should also unfold in the same characteristic manner as the
       earlier waves, building slowly in intensity in the  number  of daily
       reports and diminishing rapidly after reaching a peak.

                                      Table 1

                The 61-Month Wave Cycle and Corresponding UFO Waves

         Predicted     Actual Peak      Predicted     Actual
           Date           Date           Longitude     Location

         July 1947     July 8, 1947       120o W     Northwestern U.S.
         Aug. 1952     Aug. 3, 1952        90o W     Central & Eastern U.S.
         Sep. 1957     Aug. 21, 1957       60o W     Central & Eastern U.S.
         Oct. 1962     Sep. 1962           30o W     Brazil
         Nov. 1967     Oct. 24, 1967        0o W     Atlantic, England
         Dec. 1972     Nov. 1972           30o E     South Africa
         Jan. 1978     ?                   60o E     ?
         Feb. 1983     ?                   90o E     ?
         Mar. 1988     Feb. 1988(?)       120o E     Australia(?)
         Apr. 1993                        150o E     Guam(?)

       A corrollary to  the  Saunders'  spatio-temporal wave theory is that
       physical evidence cases should occur  at approximately the same time
       world-wide; thus, if  the  Australian close encounters  continue  to
       occur during the  pre-dawn  hours, we should expect U.S. CE-II cases
       to occur in the evening hours between  4  and  10  p.m.,  since  the
       United States and Australia have a time difference  of  some 8 to 11

       We shall soon  see  if  new  evidence  merits  the revival of an old

         (1) Saunders, D.R. (1976).  A spatio-temporal  invariant for major
             UFO waves.  In N. Dornbos (ed.), Proceedings of the 1976
             CUFOS Conference.  Evanston, IL:  Center for UFO Studies.

       Vangard Note

            We received a call from a fellow working in GUAM...he had
            a photocopy of the 61CYCLE article and had projected the
            next UFO flap to occur in that region of the world.

            So, there is now a worldmap (61CYCLE.GIF) showing all the
            cycles from 1947 to what should follow for 1993 and 1998.

            Note, the flaps are projected to occur every 5 years
            (61 months) and at 30 degree longitude intervals as they
            cross the globe.  They are not exact.

            The fellow who called wondered if any person or group
            might wish to monitor this area to collect data in the
            event this cycle can be predicted.

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